Thursday 10 September 2009

What is going on, what is happening?

BOTTOM LINE: All asset classes are moving along the expected lines. Medium-term tops are close. 1-1.5% moves lower are expected today, after which I expect final exhaustive moves to the upside.

Below is an hourly chart of the DAX, which is very, very heavy. I could make a strong case for that the structure from the September low is finished, and we have topped for a while. However, I equally cannot rule out an exhaustive move to a marginal new high following a 50-70 point correction. It is the nature of this expected immediate-term run down and the subsequent bounce that will tell us whether we topped or not.

Below is an hourly chart of General Electric, currently the fifth largest stock in the SP500. This stock is ripe for a mighty move down, which is likely to start very soon.
Elsewhere, a number of FX crosses are signalling an imminent reversal for risk - USD/Central and Eastern Europe may have bottomed. EUR/Commodity currencies may have bottomed also.

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