Monday 14 September 2009

The top in risk might be in. Again.

BOTTOM LINE: Various asset classes followed the projected paths, and may have topped this morning. I also begin coverage of ECX Carbon Futures - the price of carbon monoxide emissions as traded on the European Carbon Exchange. While not the most liquid of instruments, I find that it is beautifully technical and is likely to shed light on what might be happening in other asset markets.

Below is an hourly chart of the DAX, with counts and projections not updated since Thursday last week. As can be seen the market followed projections, and as of right now fell in an impulsive way on short-term charts. Following a retracement, this market is a sell against the highs of last Friday.
Below is a chart of the Australian against the US dollar. The count and projections have not been updated since Wednesday last week. The market, so far, is following an orderly path, and the USD will likely continue to strengthen.

This is an hourly chart of the USD against the Polish Zloty. Along with other Emerging Market currencies, the Zloty has likely topped against the dollar.
This is a chart of ECX Carbon Futures. This market is very weak, and is likely to head towards the lows established at the end of last year. Carbon prices, generally, reflect levels of industrial production.

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