Wednesday 30 September 2009

Mid-week summary

BOTTOM LINE: The market continues to rally on weakening internals (volume, breadth); the US dollar is building a medium-term base.

I believe that right now, the cleanest and clearest counts are in FX, with the US dollar having built a solid "leading" diagonal from its lows immediately after the Fed announcement last Wednesday. If this count is correct, then the US dollar is currently completing its correction lower, which took form of an irregular, and should begin rallying past this week's highs.

On an hourly chart of the EUR/USD below, a short-term correction could be complete.

In Equities, while confidence is very high that a medium-term top is being built, short-term structures remain ambiguous. In Asia, with high probability, tops are in. In US, some sectors, like Retail, Finance, Homebuilders and Oil have topped as well. In fact, the broader indices in the US still have great impulsive structures down from last week. If a fall were to happen from current levels, that would not be surprising. In Europe, the picture is mixed. A number of sectors, notably Banks, suggest that the top is very close. At the same time, it could only be a top of a smaller third wave, pending a decline of about 2-3%, followed by a ~5% advance into 5800-5850 level on the DAX.

On the daily chart of the DAX below, both counts suggest more upside. Minimal conditions for the blue count have been met, and the fifth wave could end here, truncated.

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