Friday 28 October 2011

Resuming Regular Updates. European Equity Markets to Peak Soon.

After a very long absence, here I am again.

EuroSTOXX 50 rallied over 30% from September lows. The rally has impulsive characteristics. It appears to be the first impulse that is correcting the August 2011 collapse, with one more upward thrust to follow in mid-2012, from much lower levels (possibly around September 2011 lows).

This is my current roadmap (EuroSTOXX 50, Daily):

The initial "thrust" higher, from September 2011 lows, is finishing. It will likely stall around resistance levels market by the red horizontal line and the green 200 day moving average.

Shorter-term, the wave structure is quite clear. Following what I believe will be the final 4-7% push higher from around current levels, STOXX should reverse and fall a good 15-20%. I expect the turn date to be sometime in the middle of next week.