The appeal of a falling knife... The Philadelphia KBW Banking index could bounce up to 40%.
Friday 20 February 2009
Equities MIGHT be close to a meaningful local bottom in either the following inerpretation, or under a scenario where there will be a shallow bounce from here, followed by a final (for a few months) decline to a marginal new low, which will be followed by a several month long advance (in a great wave 4).
Strenght in risk is likely to coincide with a weaker Japanese Yen, which has already shown signs of weakness - it did not strengthen in the very latest period of stock market decline. Below is a chart of price weighted combination of AUDJPY and NZDJPY.
Finally, the USD and GBP appear set to weaken accross the board, with GBP likely to be the weaker of the two.
Strenght in risk is likely to coincide with a weaker Japanese Yen, which has already shown signs of weakness - it did not strengthen in the very latest period of stock market decline. Below is a chart of price weighted combination of AUDJPY and NZDJPY.Finally, the USD and GBP appear set to weaken accross the board, with GBP likely to be the weaker of the two.
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