A number of equity indices are close to their peaks.
On 28 October 2011, I wrote:
“EuroSTOXX 50 rallied over 30% from September lows. The rally has impulsive characteristics. It appears to be the first impulse that is correcting the August 2011 collapse, with one more upward thrust to follow in mid-2012, from much lower levels (possibly around September 2011 lows)”.
I attached a “roadmap”, shown here as a repost. It appears that the EuroSTOXX complied with the forecast, and is currently (end of March 2012) peaking around 2600 (high so far 2550).
I believe that for most equity indices, the correction of the 2011 decline is over, and indices are ready to drop again. The French CAC40, shown here on a four-hourly chart, may have already peaked. For the CAC40, I expect a decline of about 20% in the next 6-8 weeks.
The Russian market also appears very close to its intermediate-term high. Shown here on a four-hourly chart, the correction that began in October 2011 appears to be nearing its end. It is possible that wave V is currently unfolding, in which case the double highs established this month are likely to be breached, however I do not expect the strength to last. I expect declines of about 45% for this index.
An index composed of leading names in Central European space is shown on a daily chart below. This is a particularly weak chart, where I also expect serious weakness in the months ahead.
Finally for today, I will make what might seem like an outlandish forecast. I believe that the NASDAQ100, shown here on a weekly chart of QQQQ (Nasdaq100 ETF), is completing a nearly 10 year correction that began in 2002. If correct, NASDAQ should fall toward the post-tech bubble lows. This count and view are invalidated should the index rise a further 6.5% from current levels, to about 2960.
Aidyn Kussainov
London, UK.
+44 (0) 7917 274 989
