Friday 9 October 2009

Weak Prospects

BOTTOM LINE: A number of markets succeeded in making new recovery highs (notably the Dutch AEX). I believe that this marks, at the very least, a short-term top in risk. USD likely bottomed against Eastern European currencies, and very likely bottomed against Silver and Gold.

Below is a daily chart of the Dow Transports. The decline off the recovery high unfolded in an impulsive fashion, with the subsequent little recovery looking very corrective. This latest recovery also tested the back of the rising trendline (in blue). I believe that a fairly precipitous decline is about to unfold here.

A good proxy for EU indices - EuroSOXX 50 is on the hourly chart below. It is increasingly likely that most EU indices will fail at previous recovery highs. Even if they don't, highs will likely be marginal and should be used as an opportunity to sell.

Silver is finishing, if not already finished its move higher against the dollar, illustrated on a daily chart below. Similarly for Gold, the latest rally, which began on 2 October (at $987) has likely reached it end. This will complete the bigger rally from July 2009.

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