BOTTOM LINE: There is no change in my view or positioning - risk markets have likely peaked or are very close to peaking. This is the market that should be sold on new highs or sold on breakdowns through previous lows.
As there is no change to my broader "risk" markets view, I ask you to refer to previous posts for the outlook.
One of the charts that is out of sync with the rest of the market is Oil (and some other commodities). I currently expect oil to fall towards $76 and then it would be fitting for it to rise towards $85. With such an outlook, it might be difficult for equity and risk markets to sustain weakness, unless recent correlations break down. This is of course possible, given oil and equities moved in opposite directions prior to oil's final peak around $147 in Spring 2008.
Below is a daily chart of crude oil.
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