First, my alternative, temporarily bullish count. On a number of metrics, this market is extraordinarily oversold. Usually, this would lay the foundation for a healthy rally. To accommodate this scenario, I propose an eminently probable count.
On this hourly chart of the CAC40, we may have just finished the "B" wave, pending a near vertical rally to just above (or so) the levels we saw after EU-TARP was announced. If so, it would be a wonderful shorting opportunity!
Following the biggest market drop since March 2009, the market is, I believe, retracing to the broken trendline. This is also known as the "kiss of death".
I expect the market to fall away from this point. In addition, should today's lows be taken out on the major indices, (where those lows coincide with the "flash crash lows" of May 6), the bottom is likely to fall out of the market.
This is a daily chart of the US Energy Sector, which today touched the underside of horizontal resistance in red.
This is a daily chart of JPMorgan, and the chart looks very similar to that of the whole US Financial sector. Today, the stock touched the underside of the broken trendline, in red.
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