Why I Am Confident Equity Markets Will Sell-Off.

Big title, big post (a lot of charts).

While US indices are making new highs, pushing bullish sentiment to vertiginous highs, most global markets are stalling below important resistance levels. To wit:

Below is a GDP-weighted composite index of stock markets of countries listed above. Combined, their GDP is 90% that of China (in nominal USD) - so this is no small fish. The declines so far have been impulsive; rallies corrective. Of further note is the fact that the 55 day moving average now crossed the 200 day one from above (bearish).

This is a daily chart of the eurozone banking sector. Note that the (so far) three-legged (hence corrective) recovery off the February 2010 lows is stalling under the resistance line in blue - the previous multiple supports. This is in stark contrast to the US banking sector, which is making new recovery highs. Should the EU index fall away from the blue line, it will likely fall rapidly and far.

I now highlight a number of European industrial stocks.

This is a chart of Germany's third largest company - Bayer. A very clear impulse from the highs has so far been retraced in a three wave move. This stock is breaking lower through some short-term supports (the red line), and will likely fall further.

This is a chart of Germany's Thyssen-Krupp, where the outlook is very similar to Bayer. A clear impulse off the highs has so far been retraced by a three legged correction. The red line here highlights multiple resistances against which the stock is stalling. I believe this will fall soon.

We now move onto some of the largest names in the Emerging markets, titans of industry, all with over $50 billion market capitalization. All of them have impulsive declines, followed by very technical, corrective retracements, suggesting of further downside.

Banco Bradesco

Banco Itau

POSCO

Taiwan Semiconductor