Wednesday 11 November 2009

Short and Caught?

BOTTOM LINE: Well, what do you know, the broader US market is at new highs for 2009. It is led by blue chips and large caps. It is held back by European indices, small and medium caps, financials and other "canary" sectors. I honestly cannot be buying here, but it is likely that we advance a few percent further, and therefore have to prepare for that.

Below is an hourly chart of SP500 e-mini futures, and I offer a bullish count. While I expect some consolidation around previous highs, it is highly likely that we see 1120 or so tested soon.

Crude Oil (on a daily chart below) will now finally get a chance to make that much needed new high above $82 (with a scope to extend as far as $86). Since peaking at $82 on 21 October, it has traced out a triangle pattern, which should resolve to the upside. I expect Oil and risk to peak together, sometime next week.

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