Tuesday, 28 July 2009

Risk at a medium-term high

I continue to build my core short risk position, looking to put on the third 1/5 of the full short index position at the US open today.

Below is an hourly chart of the Semiconductors index, which looks to have completed a clear impulse up, now pending a [substantial] correction. Bear in mind, that this sector led the advance from the most recent July low.

Similarly in Europe, I expect indices to top sometime soon.

Below is an hourly chart of the DJ EuroSTOXX 50 index, which, I believe, is completing its fifth wave around current levels, allowing for up to 1.5-2% additional upside.


Copper will likely peak simultaneously with equity indices, and is currently tracing out a clearer pattern, that also increasingly looks tired. Its fifth waves are finishing around here.

Below is an hourly chart of copper.

As far as equities are concerned, I believe that VIX - the SP500 volatility index has bottomed around current levels. While I consider it unlikely that the VIX will take out its 23% low, however even if it does, I strongly believe that it will only succeed in making marginal new lows.

Below is a daily chart of the VIX.


Finally, I am beginning a bond purchasing programme, establishing 1/5 of the intended long bonds position today.

Below is an hourly chart of the German Bund, which I believe is completing its corrective zig-zag down.

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