Wednesday 4 March 2009

USD weakness imminent; Equity strength likely to continue

The Dollar has done very well recently, and against the EUR/USD at least that trend looks set to reverse very soon. New lows in the cross have been made against substantial divergences, and appear to be taking shape of an ending diagonal [the move from 1.47 high has taken shape of overlapping, corrective slide. There are many ways to count it, but most of them arrive at the same conclusion - USD strength likely to end very soon].


Global equity markets are moving higher this morning, bouncing from 12 year lows. The move into those lows appears complete (to me). I expect equity strength to last for a few weeks at least, followed by a fairly deep retrace, and then still higher into May 2009. Fitting well with that is coming government bond weakness, in Europe and the US.

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