Market Update - European Stock indices, VIDEO LINK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZsEp7nStvk

 

Aidyn Kussainov

1/60A Portland Place, W1B 1NN

London, UK.

+44 (0) 7917 274 989

 

TECH BRIEF - LONDON (EUROSTOXX 50)

An update on the EuroSTOXX 50.

 

This index has been particularly badly hit, falling 14% in four weeks. It has been dragged down by the Spanish, Italian and French components, and supported by the German ones.

 

There are some tentative signs of a base emerging. The structure, from the 2550 March 2012 high could be finishing its impulsive drop. At the same time, we could still only be finishing the wave III drop. In either case, a rally of at least 5% is soon to be expected.

 

This will most likely coincide with strength in US indices, a reversal lower in TY and possible new highs in Crude Oil (above $110).

 

TECH BRIEF

EUR/USD:

 

Consolidation/correction phase in force. Likely to see overlapping/meandering moves for the next few sessions. Targets remain below 1.29.

 

USD/JPY:

Move lower from 72.98 (label “2?”) is very likely complete at “3?”. This could have been the whole of the correction from March 2012 highs, or part of it. 80.57 offers good support levels for a bounce into 81.80 or so.

 

US10YR:

Allow for one more high into high 131’s, but expect a move lower after that. Weakness likely to extend towards 130’.

 

CRUDE OIL:

A wedge/ending diagonal is developing. The structure is basing. So far, no impulse higher/correction lower evident. Possible to use wedge/diagonal base as a stop level (down to $100), for a bounce into at least $$106-108.

 

ESc1:

Wave III of [I] has or is about to be traded. Consolidation/wave IV is likely for the rest of this week. Targets higher cluster around 1380. For an immediately bearish view, 1386 wave I low should not be seen again before 1340. If we rise above 1386, a more complex topping pattern is likely in play, possibly a 1-2, 1-2 coil.

 

 

 

Aidyn Kussainov

1/60A Portland Place, W1B 1NN

London, UK.

+44 (0) 7917 274 989