The previous forecast for an imminent top in risk and related assets was somewhat early, and about 1-3% away from what proved to be the tops.
I am not very happy with how risk sold-off since then, and therefore expect another rally to challenge the August 2010 peaks.
I expect substantial weakness in the Autumn, possibly beginning in early September. This will likely coincide with sub-50 ISM, revisions of Q2'10 US GDP down to 0.8-1.2% and possibly negative Q3'10 GDP in the USA.
This is a daily chart of Microsoft, which I expect to rally strongly (around 12-14%) in the next two weeks.
This is a daily chart of Bank of NY, which I also expect to rally strongly (around 12-14%) in the next two weeks, along with other Financials.
