USD bottoming in the long-, medium- and short-term.

BOTTOM LINE: The US dollar is bottoming at these levels. My conviction in this call is very high, as high as conviction in the beginning of March 2009 that equities were at their lows.

Below is a daily chart of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The real is likely to weaken substantially in the coming weeks, as the dollar strengthens across the board.

At this stage, my medium-term bearish outlook on equities is somewhat contingent on the dollar. While FX patterns are fairly clear, and point to imminent reversals in favour of the dollar, equity patterns do not yet look complete.