Prospects are still weak.

I apologise for disappearing for one week - this was due to a fabulous holiday in Greece.

BOTTOM LINE: Risk will likely consolidate between the highs and lows of next week for a few days. There is still a 50% chance of a run at the highs across most major stock averages, particularly in the EU.

As expected (see Friday 18 September post below), the move up from September lows finished after the Fed announcement last Wednesday. That whole move was likely the penultimate move higher. The decline after the Fed announcement is impulsive in case of US indices. It is not really as clean in case of EU indices. Therefore, it is likely that the post-Fed decline is part of an ongoing correction which will provide a base for a move to around 5800-5850 on the DAX and 1100 on the SP500.

I give the above scenario a 50% chance of occuring, and will tweak the target levels as the structure unfolds. If equities were to start moving lower from current levels, without a new high, I would not be surprised. However, in this case, I could only describe the way the top was established as "strange".

Elsewhere, USD is bottoming against everything.