Monday, 8 December 2008

Correction in Equities likely over, strong rally ahead

The one week correction to the ~20% rally from November lows likely finished on Friday, post the awful employment number. If this is the case, markets should rally about 20% more, with minimal give-backs and pauses. Any weakness should be used to add to more longs. Friday lows are now critical for this view.

Some markets failed to put in "complete" corrections, where the final leg takes out the price level (in our case, the low) of the first leg (notably - SP500, NASDAQ & DAX). The ones that didn't are likely to be the stronger ones. The ones that did, such as the DJ EURO STOXX 50, FTSE, CAC40, DJI are likely to be weaker.

Finally, please note that it is very, very likely that the USD will weaken (perhaps substantially) in the coming sessions (against everything - EUR, GBP, CHF, Copper, Crude, etc.) - so it might be wise to go long of the DAX, IBEX.



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