Sounding like a broken record, I strongly believe that we will move below Monday's low. If this were to happen (and yes, it is a big IF), it will have been a beautiful pattern working out.
Below is a chart of the VIX, which has not retraced lower as much as S&P500 grinded higher. Through this bear market, when there have been disagreement between VIX and S&P500, the VIX "won". Its pattern is also clearer, and strongly suggests that it will move higher, the stock index lower. The natural level for the S&P500 to aim for is 796-793; from there, it should move significantly higher.
Thursday, 4 December 2008
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