Friday, 6 November 2009

Fireworks

BOTTOM LINE: The minimum conditions for a correction higher in "risk" and related assets have been met. It is now highly likely that we will see substantial moves to the downside.

Below is a four hourly chart of the SP500 (futures, including GLOBEX sessions). I believe that equity markets across G10 will sell-off. It is possible that we have only just finished building the first part of a longer (in time) correction higher in risk. Under this scenario, we will see volatile, overlapping price action for a few days, followed by a final attempt at the 1060-1070 level, possibly into the end of next week. However, looking across other markets, notably FX, where the USD is set to strengthen substantially, I believe that the impending sell-off will easily take out last Friday lows, and rapidly continue lower.

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