Weak prospects

BOTTOM LINE: In FX, USD likely bottomed against Eastern European currencies (CZK, HUF, PLZ). USD continues to build a medium-term base against majors. In Equities, signs that a medium-term top is close are accumulating.

Some stock index averages, notably the Dow Jones Transportation average, on a daily chart, below, are breaking through important medium-term trendlines. I do not think a new high is likely here.

While some indices may have topped, others could still stage a ~5% rally from current levels and still look reasonably weak. On a daily chart of the DAX, below, a rising channel is seen in blue. It could still contain the DAX on the downside, and provide a platform for what would be the fifth leg higher into the 5800-5850 zone. This is the case for other leading averages, such as the S&P500, Nasdaq and DJ EuroSTOXX. However, at this stage the pressure is on the bulls. With minimal conditions for the second "zig-zag" already met, averages could fall directly from here. As usual, it is the nature of bounces that will provide clues to future price action.

Today, a few key levels were broken on the daily chart of the USD against the Polish Zloty. It appears that a bottom is in place.

On balance, considering price action in FX, Fixed Income and some equity markets (like the Transports), I would be a seller of risk on strength. While strength could take some stock index averages to new highs, they are likely to be marginal.