Friday, 14 August 2009

The search for the top

No joy in the bear cave, I can tell you that. On the chart below (CAC40, hourly), the last wave labelled "i" could be the whole of the 5th wave. However, price action off its high does not look impulsive (down)... Which, unfortunately, leads me to believe that we may be in [still!!!] early stages of the 5th wave, having just completed wave i.5, pending its correction, and then more grinding moves higher (into the middle of next week?).

This count is wrong on penetration of what is labelled as "4" - 985.75 on SP500 futures, 5254 on DAX futures and 3436 on the CAC40 (also futures). Also, on penetration of those levels, if it occurs in an impulsive fashion, I would call the beginning of a bear trend.

While I would most certainly not be buying here, outright selling remains a risky strategy. We are yet to have a clean five wave impulse down on an hourly, or even 15 minute time-frame. Once we do, I will be all over it.

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