Thursday, 30 July 2009

Risk at a medium-term high

It appears that Equity indices did indeed go on to build fifth waves higher. I believe we are at a critical stage now, with volatility expected to rise significantly. Therefore, I would respect the breaks of Tuesday 28 July lows, and following a likely retracement of that move lower (if it were to happen), seek to establish a full short position.

Below are the updated hourly charts of the DAX and the NASDAQ100. While it is possible that the mini-rallies from Tuesday lows were just the first of the five waves that could make up the final higher degree fifth wave, I consider that highly unlikely.

DAX

NASDAQ100

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