Friday, 22 May 2009

Sell-off in risk?

The BKX (KBW Philadelphia Banking Index) has underperformed the broader market this week. So far, it is showing strong bearish signs, and provided the highs of Wednesday at 40.09 (~11% from here) don’t give way, we are set for a substantial decline.
KBW/PHIL BANKING INDEX HOURLY

The Dow Jones Semiconductors Index also underperformed the broader market, and is tracing out a decidedly bearish pattern. A major degree wave IV likely finished at 8039 on 8 May 2009, and the index since fell in a clear five wave move down, which has then been retraced in a corrective fashion. This sets it up for a fall in the coming weeks. Targets extend to below November lows, around 30% lower.
DOW JONES SEMICONDUCTORS INDEX DAILY

Sterling has outperformed both the Euro (on these charts) and the Swiss Franc (not shown) since the March low in equities. It has since rallied in what appears to be a clear, finished impulsive fashion, that is likely a “c” wave of a larger, flat correction. If that is the case, Sterling is likely to weaken in the weeks ahead. This is likely to coincide with weakness in equities.
GBP/EUR DAILY

GBP/EUR 4 HOURLY

One of the indicators of “risk appetite”: Euro against the Canadian dollar. I believe that this cross has bottomed, medium- to long-term at 1.5460. It has since rallied in an impulsive fashion, and is getting ready to rally to about 1.70 as a first target. This is likely to coincide with substantial weakness in equities.
EUR/CAD DAILY

EUR/CAD 4 HOURLY

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