Long risk has been a great trade since early March. The Financial Services SPDR is up 90% from its low, Germany's DAX up 30%. This move is likely at an exhaustion point around current levels. With that, I also believe that the Japanese Yen crosses, such as AUD/JPY & NZD/JPY are also at their highs.
While it is too early to say how low the drop that is about to begin will go, some markets look more bearish than others. Notably, the Nasdaq appears to have completed its major fourth wave correction, pending a drop below its November lows. However, the EU indices and broader US indices appear to have either finished their major fourth wave corrections as "running corrections", or they may have just finished first legs of "C" waves of their irregular fourth wave corrections. Either way, I believe the move UP in risk and related assets is, for the next few weeks, over.
Monday, 20 April 2009
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