Wednesday, 26 November 2008

A 20% rally on weak volume

The broader market has rallied about 20% from the Friday intra-day lows. Some stocks, particularly large-cap basic materials (Alcoa; US Steel) rallied around 40% (!).

The rallies have taken shapes of impulsive 5 wave moves, suggesting that, after a correction, this move is likely to continue higher.

The declining volume of this rally also suggests an imminent correction.

Copper is setting up for a good rally, with first targets around 217 - around 27% from current levels.

Finally, the USD fell in a great, clear impulsive 5 waves from the high. In these markets, turning points are particularly tricky to pick, and with the current 50% retracement achieved, it might be a good idea to scale into USD shorts, but be prepared to add all the way to 1.22. Targets, on USD/CHF extend as low as 1.10 - 1.06


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